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<title>News About Taiwan</title>
<link>http://www.sinodaily.com/Taiwan_News.html</link>
<description>News About Taiwan</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 21 FEB 2012 08:55:04 AEST</pubDate>
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<title><![CDATA[Beijing mayor visits Taiwan amid protests]]></title>
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Taipei (AFP) Feb 16, 2012 -

 Beijing's mayor arrived in Taiwan Thursday, officials said, amid protests from dozens of anti-China activists who labelled him a "human rights villain".<p>

Guo Jinlong, who is the highest ranking Chinese official to visit the island since the re-election of Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou last month, was flanked by about 200 policemen after he arrived at Taoyuan airport.<p>

But the tight security cordon did not dissuade the Tibetan and Falungong protesters who shouted anti-China slogans and unveiled protest banners at the airport's arrival lobby.<p>

Television images showed an emotional Tibetan activist being carried away by four policemen in uniform. He was later released.<p>

The police also blocked dozens of Falungong members, a spiritual movement outlawed by the Chinese authorities, who earlier in the day filed a lawsuit against Guo, denouncing him as a "human rights villain".<p>

"We ask prosecutors to immediately summon Guo who has been notorious for suppressing Falungong and Tibetans. He should be arrested on charges of genocide," said Teresa Chu, spokeswoman for the Taiwanese followers of the Falungong movement.<p>

Guo, on a trip to push forward cultural and economic exchanges between Taiwan and Beijing, later visited former Taiwanese vice-president Lien Chan, who is honorary chairman of the ruling Kuomintang party.<p>

Guo will reportedly stay until Tuesday.<p>

China outlawed Falungong as an "evil cult" in 1999 and has since detained tens of thousands of members. The group says its members are tortured for refusing to give up their beliefs.<p>

Beijing still regards Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting to be reunified by force if necessary even though the island has ruled itself since 1949 at the end of a civil war.<p>

But ties between Taiwan and China have improved markedly since 2008 after Ma of the China-friendly Kuomintang came to power on a platform of beefing up trade links and allowing more Chinese tourists to visit.<p>

Ma was reelected to a second and the last four years in office in last month's vote.<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Chinese envoy pays rare visit to southern Taiwan]]></title>
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Taipei (AFP) Feb 13, 2012 -

 A Chinese envoy on Monday toured a southern Taiwan city, in a rare visit by a top mainland official to the area known for its vehement anti-China sentiment, officials said.<p>

Zheng Lizhong, China's second-ranking envoy to Taiwan, visited the city of Tainan at the invitation of the island's ruling Kuomintang party and did not face any protests despite concerns about his safety, they said.<p>

"The purpose of the visit is to explore more economic and trade opportunities between the two sides," Zheng, vice president of China's quasi-official Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, told reporters.<p>

He visited an orchid farm and met with a group of farmers in Tainan -- the stronghold of the China-sceptic opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).<p>

Zhang Mingqing, another Chinese official, was pushed to the ground by a crowd led by a DPP politician when he visited the city in October 2008.<p>

The incident was caught on camera and triggered fury in Beijing, with the Chinese government calling for "severe punishment" of those found guilty.<p>

The DPP politician later received a four-month jail sentence for assault from a district court there.<p>

Zheng's association is authorised by Beijing to handle civilian exchanges with Taiwan in the absence of official contacts between the two sides.<p>

Beijing still regards Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary, even though the island has ruled itself for more than 60 years since its split with the mainland in 1949 at the end of a civil war.<p>

But ties between Taipei and Beijing have improved markedly since Ma Ying-jeou of the China-friendly Kuomintang party came to power in 2008 on promises of beefing up trade links with China and allowing more Chinese tourists to visit.<p>

Ma was re-elected to a second and the last four-year term in last month's elections.<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Outcry over Taiwan ex-general China comment]]></title>
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Taipei (AFP) Feb 10, 2012 -

 A retired Taiwanese general came under fire on Friday after he allegedly claimed that Taiwanese and Chinese armies are both "striving for unification" during a recent trip to China.<p>

Hsia Ying-chou, ex-vice chief of Taiwan's air force general staff and former president of the National Defence University, reportedly made the remarks while attending a seminar in China this week.<p>

"Our Nationalist army and the Communist army may have different ideals but we have the exact same goal to strive for the unification of the Chinese people," he was quoted by the Taipei-based Liberty Times as saying.<p>

China still considers Taiwan part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary, even though the island has governed itself after a civil war in 1949.<p>

Ties have improved markedly since Beijing-friendly Ma Ying-jeou became Taiwan's president in 2008, but political and military issues remain sensitive for the former bitter rivals.<p>

The main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has been wary of closer China ties, lashed out at Hsia and vowed to amend a law to revoke pensions for retired servicemen who "damage Taiwan's sovereignty."<p>

"Hsia should have the guts to give up the pension from now on to go to China since he does not identify with Taiwan and even hurt Taiwan," said DPP lawmaker Chen Ting-fei.<p>

A presidential spokesman told reporters that Hsia's remarks were unacceptable if proven true, as they hurt the military's morale and go against Taiwan's policy of "no unification" with China.<p>

In a similar incident last year, Hsia drew criticism after he reportedly suggested that the island's military owed as much loyalty to Beijing as Taipei.<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Taiwan official expects smooth times with China]]></title>
<link><![CDATA[http://www.sinodaily.com/reports/Taiwan_official_expects_smooth_times_with_China_999.html]]></link>
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Washington (AFP) Feb 1, 2012 -

 A Taiwanese official predicted Wednesday that China would maintain a conciliatory stance with Taipei, saying that likely next leader Xi Jinping has experience dealing with the self-ruling island.<p>

John Chiang, the vice chairman of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's Kuomintang party, said that Chinese President Hu Jintao has been the chief force behind a policy of "emphasizing carrots over sticks" with the self-ruling island.<p>

"I think these kinds of policies will continue to be there for wooing the support of the Taiwanese public," Chiang said.<p>

"And they will say it's best to have the coming several years spent entrenching the economic accomplishments across the strait," Chiang said at the Heritage Foundation think tank on a visit to Washington.<p>

Taiwanese voters last month re-elected Ma, who sealed a landmark free trade agreement with mainland China as part of his efforts to ease tension with Beijing, which considers the island a territory awaiting reunification.<p>

Chiang, a former foreign minister, reiterated that Ma's administration was not seeking to enter talks on sensitive topics such as a peace treaty, saying there is "no hurry to move towards the political area."<p>

Chiang said that Vice President Xi Jinping, who is widely expected to take over next year at China's helm, had plenty of experience dealing with Taiwanese when he served as a leader in investor-friendly coastal Fujian province.<p>

"Given his bunch of experiences in dealing with Taiwanese investors, businessmen and also on cross-strait relations, I see no reason he will have a different policy toward Taiwan," Chiang said.<p>

His remarks echo those of Ma, who said ahead of the election that he did not see "any significant difference" on Taiwan between Xi and Hu.<p>

Domestic critics of Ma charge that growing Chinese investment threatens to chip away at democratic Taiwan's de facto independence.<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Taiwan's Ma wins vote but faces tough second term]]></title>
<link><![CDATA[http://www.sinodaily.com/reports/Taiwans_Ma_wins_vote_but_faces_tough_second_term_999.html]]></link>
<description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.spxdaily.com/images-bg/taiwan-wang-jin-pyng-bg.jpg" hspace=5 vspace=2 align=left border=1 width=100 height=80>
Taipei (AFP) Jan 15, 2012 -
 Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's re-election is a relief for China and the US, but observers say he could face a tough second term, forced to balance demands from Beijing with fears he is selling out.<p>

Beijing-friendly Ma's surprisingly comfortable victory over his China-sceptic challenger on Saturday was greeted with expressions of hope that positive momentum in the island's ties with the mainland can be maintained.<p>

China's state media said Ma's win "may open new chances for the peaceful development" of relations, while the White House called on China and Taiwan to continue their "impressive efforts" to build ties.<p>

Ma's outreach to China over the past four years has made the strategically vital Taiwan Straits area, which sits astride some of the world's major shipping lanes, more stable than at any other time in the past six decades.<p>

Challenger Tsai Ing-wen of the populist Democratic Progressive Party had caused concern by suggesting she may not accept the longstanding formula under which Taiwan agrees, in a vague and non-committal way, to the idea of "one China".<p>

"This is the best-case scenario for cross-strait relations," Chu Shulong, an international relations expert at Beijing's Tsinghua University, said of the victory for Ma and his Kuomintang party.<p>

"Ma's victory will ensure that the stability and peaceful development between the two sides in the past four years can continue," he said.<p>

During his first term, Ma oversaw the most dramatic thaw in mainland ties since China and Taiwan split in 1949 after a civil war, with a sweeping trade pact signed in 2010 considered a crowning achievement.<p>

But outside economic initiatives, Hong Kong-born Ma has proceeded carefully, constantly reassuring the public that his top priority is Taiwan's sovereignty, a cautious approach that was vindicated in Saturday's vote.<p>

"There's no mandate for moving faster than Ma has done thus far. The gradual approach while affirming Taiwan's autonomy is popular," said Clayton Dube, a Taiwan expert at the University of Southern California.<p>

The big question is if China is satisfied with the current measured pace or if it would like more boldness in Taipei, moving from economic issues to more sensitive political ones, such a peace treaty to formally end the civil war.<p>

Ma indicated Sunday he was aware that he faces a critical test as he balances warming China relations with domestic concerns over the pace of rapprochement.<p>

"In the four years ahead, I'll not have the pressure of seeking re-election, but I'll have the pressure of establishing a historical legacy. Therefore I'll do my best to be a model for our country and for history," he said.<p>

Complicating any contacts between China and Taiwan is Beijing's insistence that it has sovereignty over the island and will bring about reunification, even if it means war.<p>

In its reaction to Saturday's vote, China's Taiwan Affairs Office said it is prepared "to join hands with all walks of life on the basis of continuing to oppose 'Taiwan independence'."<p>

The next few months could be critical as China undergoes a complex power transition, according to Joseph Wu, a political analyst at the National Chengchi University and a former top China policy-maker when Taiwan was led by the anti-Beijing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).<p>

"There will be a wave of pressure before Chinese President Hu Jintao steps down in October as Hu seeks to establish his legacy for his accomplishment in cross-strait policies," he said.<p>

"We haven't seen any change in Ma's personality or leadership style in the past four years and he will probably be too soft to resist China's pressure and defend Taiwan's sovereignty."<p>

One the other hand, policy-making in Beijing is becoming more sophisticated, and Chinese officials are keenly aware of how a democracy like Taiwan's works.<p>

That means that Ma is likely to enjoy some leeway in how fast to move, said John Ciorciari, a Taiwan expert at the University of Michigan.<p>

"The Chinese government is doubtlessly pleased with his re-election and understands the political dynamics in Taipei," he said.<p>

"China will press Ma for further engagement but will try to not to back him into a domestic political corner that would invite a DPP victory in the next presidential election."<p>

According to this view, Taiwan and China will continue to boost their trade and investment ties, but be extremely cautious about any move that could be interpreted by the Taiwanese public as a step towards unification.<p>

"China does not have any illusion as to how far Ma can go," said George Tsai, a political observer at the Chinese Culture University in Taipei.<p>

"I think as long as he can create an irreversible trend for stable relations that's good enough for everybody."<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Dramatic vote looms in Taiwan as China, US watch]]></title>
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<description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.spxdaily.com/images-bg/taiwan-taipei-parliament-building-bg.jpg" hspace=5 vspace=2 align=left border=1 width=100 height=80>
Taipei (AFP) Jan 12, 2012 -

 Taiwan goes to the polls on Saturday in a knife-edge presidential election that could shape both the high-tech trading island's economic outlook and relations with Beijing and Washington.<p>

President Ma Ying-jeou of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) party is facing off against the China-sceptic opposition's Tsai Ing-wen, who is bidding to become the first female leader of Taiwan's 23 million people.<p>

The last surveys allowed to be published prior to the election showed the race was too close to call. Ma, 61, enjoyed a slender poll lead of three percentage points over the 55-year-old Tsai -- right on the margin of error.<p>

And some analysts believe the independent candidacy of former KMT heavyweight James Soong could deprive the president of enough votes to allow a historic victory for Tsai, of the populist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).<p>

The election's reach extends far beyond Taiwan, which since the end of a civil war in 1949 has enjoyed de-facto independence but which formally styles itself the "Republic of China" and is allied militarily to the United States.<p>

"This election is extremely important and will have both an immediate and a long-term impact on cross-strait relations and regional stability," George Tsai, an analyst at Chinese Culture University in Taipei, told AFP.<p>

"It will also impact China's future development. If tension increases, China may have to divert some of its resources and attention away to deal with Taiwan," he said.<p>

The Harvard-educated Ma was elected in a landslide four years ago on a promise of new prosperity fuelled by closer economic ties with mainland China.<p>

He has delivered with a series of agreements, including a sweeping trade pact with China signed in 2010. But the benefits have accrued to big business and with economic growth slipping, ordinary Taiwanese appear unimpressed.<p>

The campaign has been shaped by those economic anxieties in an export-reliant island that is home to many of the world's largest IT contract manufacturers, producing computers and other hardware for big names like Apple.<p>

Ma's outreach to China has made the strategically vital Taiwan Straits area, which sits astride some of the world's major shipping lanes, more stable than at any other time in the past six decades.<p>

Mainland China has never renounced its claim to the island and wants reunification, by war if necessary. Beijing is heading into a 10-yearly leadership change and with a presidential election also beckoning in the United States, neither country would relish regional instability from Taiwan.<p>

Tsai has reportedly caused concern in both Washington and Beijing by suggesting she may not accept the longstanding formula in which Taiwan agrees, in a vague and non-committal way, to the idea that there is only one China.<p>

This is of huge importance to mainland China, given its claim of sovereignty over the island, and to the United States, given its legal obligation to maintain Taiwan's ability to defend itself from any military intervention.<p>

Ma's Beijing-friendly position is well known but "there is going to be more speculation" about Tsai's intentions should she win on Saturday, said Clayton Dube of the University of Southern California.<p>

However, he added: "I think there will be greater uncertainty initially about Tsai, but I don't think there will be cause for alarm."<p>

Suggesting a less confrontational approach, Tsai has backtracked on some China issues and no longer demands a referendum on the 2010 trade pact with the mainland.<p>

"With the vote approaching and the race tight, Tsai has kept adjusting her appeal to sway wavering voters, especially first-time voters," said Wang Yeh-li, political science professor at National Taiwan University.<p>

"As to Ma, he has also been moving closer to the middle since he was elected to the office in 2008."<p>

The wild card on Saturday is Soong's electoral performance, given that he and Ma share the same support base in the nationalist and business-friendly KMT party.<p>

"If Soong can obtain five to six percent of the ballots, then the impact on Ma could be massive," said Wang.<p>

Voting runs from 0000 to 0800 GMT on Saturday and television exit polls will follow. An official result could come by 1400 GMT, but that will depend on how close the outcome is.<p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 21 FEB 2012 08:55:04 AEST</pubDate>
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<title><![CDATA[Taiwan's Ma expects stable ties under new China leader]]></title>
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Taipei (AFP) Jan 12, 2012 -

 Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said Thursday ties with China are unlikely to change despite an imminent, once-in-a-decade power transition in Beijing.<p>

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping is widely seen as being groomed to take over as president and communist party leader from Hu Jintao during a gradual generational change taking place this year and next.<p>

"I have watched closely the style and policy direction of China's future leader since I took office," said Ma, who became president in 2008 and is seeking a second four-year term in elections on Saturday.<p>

"In general I don't see any significant difference from the current leader, especially in cross-strait ties," he told foreign reporters in Taipei.<p>

Ma took office on a Beijing-friendly platform after eight years of tense ties with China under the Democratic Progressive Party, which favours independence for the island which Beijing regards as part of its territory.<p>

"The current situation is acceptable and even though we are not 100 percent satisfied, it improved remarkably from the eight years before I took office and it is going forward. There is no reason to make major changes," he said in a swipe at the DPP ahead of Saturday's election which is seen as too close to call.<p>

Ma dismissed criticism that he had made Taiwan too reliant on its giant neighbour with policies promoting closer trade and tourism.<p>

"I have been very careful in making every move. What I have done was simply to make up for the lost eight years. Taiwan and China now gradually resume normal relations between two major trade partners," he said.<p>

Ma argued that China still accounted for about 40 percent of Taiwan's total trade under his term while the island has also boosted trade with the United States, Southeast Asia and other emerging economies.<p>

"We do not put all our eggs in one basket with our policies... We are not leaning on China to a point of no return," he said.<p>

Ma renewed calls on China not to meddle in the presidential elections, amid reports of Beijing allegedly rallying Taiwanese businessmen based on the mainland to return to vote for him.<p>

"I have urged China not to interfere in the elections by any means... We welcome and encourage Taiwanese businessmen to come back to vote to exercise their civil rights but we have no say in who they will vote for."<p>

Taiwan has governed itself since the end of a civil war in 1949 but China still claims sovereignty and has threatened to invade should the island declare formal independence.<p>

Ma all but ruled out the possibility of making any breakthrough in China ties, such as sealing a peace deal or making a historic visit to the mainland, if he were elected for a second and final four-year term.<p>

Ma stressed that he would only move ahead for a peace agreement with the approval of both the parliament and the public via a referendum.<p>

"We are cautiously evaluating whether to sign the peace agreement or not," Ma said. "At present we don't see there is such an opportunity in my next term. There might be some chance in the future."<p>

A peace treaty is widely considered one of the thorniest areas in the complex Taiwan-China ties as it would involve sensitive sovereignty issues that the two sides have put on hold to focus on economic exchanges.<p>

Ma said he had no current plan to go to China and that the chance of a future visit was "very slim" even if he secured a second term.<p>

"I am the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan's formal name) no matter where I go, I won't change my identity to visit mainland as the Taiwanese people won't accept that." <p>

Chinese media usually refer to Ma as the leader, rather than the president, of Taiwan.<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Taiwan-China ties could falter after poll: experts]]></title>
<link><![CDATA[http://www.sinodaily.com/reports/Taiwan-China_ties_could_falter_after_poll_experts_999.html]]></link>
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Taipei (AFP) Jan 11, 2012 -

 Taiwan's warming ties with China could slow down or even freeze if President Ma Ying-jeou fails in Saturday's vote to secure a new mandate for his Beijing-friendly platform, analysts say.<p>

Ma, who won a landslide victory in 2008 on a promise of improving the economy through closer relations with China, is in a tight race with Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which stresses the island's independence.<p>

During Ma's first term, Taipei and Beijing have adopted a series of moves to boost links and trade. But China could be forced into a rethink if the Taiwanese electorate shows that it has been unimpressed by the rapid changes.<p>

"If Tsai wins, it will mean a huge setback for China," said Chang Ya-chung, a political scientist at National Taiwan University.<p>

"Ties could freeze for one or two years while China observes what Tsai says and does."<p>

Chang added that, while adopting a wait-and-see approach, Beijing might suspend some exchanges, cancelling government purchasing delegations of the kind that have recently visited Taiwan to boost the island's economy.<p>

Li Peng, a Taiwan expert at Xiamen University in southeast China, warned that "the achievements of peaceful development would disappear" if Tsai wins.<p>

"It will be difficult for relations to be sustained. I would even say their development could go in reverse," said Li, assistant director of the university's Taiwan Research Institute.<p>

While Tsai has been vague in her campaign about how to tackle the economic giant across the Taiwan Straits, Ma has indicated he will build on the current momentum.<p>

Ma's signature policy was a sweeping trade pact agreed with China in 2010. But the agreement has come under fire for exacerbating a growing rich-poor divide in Taiwan.<p>

And even if Ma wins re-election, the two sides are unlikely to venture beyond trade into the more risky political field.<p>

A key reason is that China's own diplomacy will be in dormant mode as it prepares for a once-in-a-decade leadership change, while tackling growing civil unrest and the impact of the global economic slowdown.<p>

"China will put additional pressure on Ma but I don't think the pressure will be too strong as China has other priorities," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a Taiwan expert at Hong Kong Baptist University.<p>

"Ma will be very cautious as his proposal for a peace accord didn't go down very well on the island," he added. <p>

Taiwan and China split in 1949 after a civil war but Beijing still claims the island as part of its territory and wants reunification, by force if necessary.<p>

Ma has suggested that Taiwan consider signing a peace treaty with China to formally end the civil war but his critics have slammed the deal as "surrender and unification" in disguise.<p>

A peace treaty is widely considered one of the thorniest issues in the complex relations between China and Taiwan, reflected in Ma's reassurance that it would only happen if the island's people agreed via a referendum.<p>

Dramatic steps are unlikely in the coming years, not least because the United States, Taiwan's main source of arms, might be expected to put subtle pressure on the island to abstain from upsetting regional stability.<p>

The United States prefers the status quo where Taiwan maintains informal independence without taking the potentially explosive step of formally announcing its separate status.<p>

"Even if the DPP wins, it is quite unlikely to declare independence or take other precipitous steps that would invite conflict," said John Ciorciari, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.<p>

"As Taiwan's principal ally, the United States will work closely with either party and will almost certainly counsel caution and restraint."<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Taiwan businessmen head home from China to vote]]></title>
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Taipei (AFP) Jan 10, 2012 -

 More than 200,000 Taiwanese businessmen and their relatives currently based in China are expected to return to the island to vote in the presidential elections, a business group estimated Tuesday.<p>

At least 3,000 based in Beijing, and the remainder from around China, plan to return for Saturday's polls keen to have a say in future ties with China, said Lin Ching-fa, head of a leading businessmen's association in Beijing.<p>

"This time the election is very tight and more businessmen than previously intend to come back to vote to protect their investment rights," Lin said.<p>

About 148,000 mainland-based businessmen came back to vote in the 2008 election, when Ma Ying-jeou, the candidate of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party, won a landslide victory.<p>

Taiwan's two leading carriers China Airlines and EVA Airways said cross-strait flights this week are nearly fully booked and that they have operated additional flights to meet the demand.<p>

Tensions between Taiwan and China mounted during the 2000-2008 term of the former government of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which launched policies promoting the island's independence.<p>

Ties have improved markedly since Ma took office, with measures to boost trade and tourism, culminating with the signing of a major trade pact in 2010.<p>

"The businesspeople don't want the situation to deteriorate to what it was before 2008," said Lin.<p>

Ma, who is seeking a second and final four-year term, is locked in a neck-and-neck race against the DPP's Tsai Ing-wen.<p>

Lin estimated that 80 percent of the mainland-based businessmen are rooting for a Ma victory, as they are concerned about the consequences if the DPP were to win.<p>

Peng Ming-Min, a former presidential adviser to the president in the DPP government, claimed that China has been "meddling in the election" by encouraging the businessmen to return to vote.<p>

"This is an open secret that the Chinese government has asked Taiwanese people doing business in China to come back to vote for the Kuomintang candidate," he said.<p>
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<title><![CDATA[Economy, not China policy, to decide Taiwan vote]]></title>
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<description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.spxdaily.com/images-bg/taiwan-spix-bg.jpg" hspace=5 vspace=2 align=left border=1 width=100 height=80>
Taipei (AFP) Jan 8, 2012 -

 Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has overseen the most dramatic improvement in relations with China in the island's history, but economic anxieties could dash his re-election hopes in next Saturday's vote.<p>

The 61-year-old Harvard-trained lawyer faces Tsai Ing-wen, 56, who is vying to become the island's first female head of state and has campaigned, with some success, on a promise to distribute wealth more fairly.<p>

"The economy remains the most salient issue to a great majority of people, especially those in the low-income group," said George Tsai, a political expert at the Chinese Culture University in Taipei.<p>

"These people are not really concerned about improved ties with the mainland or diplomatic issues."<p>

Party politics in Taiwan has traditionally been defined by China policy, with Ma's Kuomintang (KMT) advocating closer ties with its giant neighbour, and Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leaning towards independence.<p>

Taiwan has ruled itself since the end of a civil war in 1949, but China still claims sovereignty over the island and has made it clear it will not shy away from all-out war to bring about reunification if need be.<p>

Despite this menace, mainland ties may no longer be a decisive factor in Taiwan elections, as many of the island's 23 million residents see China as something they can do nothing about anyway.<p>

"The China relationship remains an important issue on Taiwan, but its significance has been in a slow, slow decline," said Joseph Cheng, a China analyst at City University of Hong Kong.<p>

"Maybe it's because people understand the economic integration process will go on, and you don't want to rock the boat."<p>

Voter apathy over China means Ma, who is aiming for a second and last four-year term, is unlikely to benefit from his record in dealing with Beijing, despite achievements such as a sweeping trade pact signed in mid-2010.<p>

This is reflected in the last opinion polls allowed to be released before the election, which showed Ma leading Tsai by as little as three percentage points, on the border of the margin of error.<p>

"It's really too close to call, although Ma seems to have a slight edge, since the economy is not doing too badly," said Cheng.<p>

Taiwan's economy grew by 3.37 percent in the three months to September after expanding by a sizzling 10.88 percent in 2010 -- a 24-year high -- mostly fuelled by China, the island's main trading partner.<p>

This owes much to the shifting fortunes of the global economy, which have an immediate impact on the export-dependent island.<p>

Nevertheless, there is a clear note of frustration in the Ma camp, which believes voters do not give the government due credit for a respectable record.<p>

"All statistics indicate that Taiwan's economy is moving in a positive direction. Too bad this trend has been ignored by the media and the people," Ma's chief aide King Pu-tsung told reporters late last month.<p>

The biggest shortcoming in the KMT's policies for many voters is the lack of focus on the growing income gap in what has traditionally been one of Asias most egalitarian societies.<p>

The richest 20 percent are six times better off than the poorest 20 percent, a situation that Ma critics say has been worsened by closer economic ties with China, which especially benefit those with capital to invest.<p>

The Ma campaign has also been hurt by the emergence of a third candidate, former KMT heavyweight James Soong, who trails far behind the other two, but could take votes from the incumbent.<p>

It all adds up to the most uncertain election in Taiwan since 2004, when then-president Chen Shui-bian of the DPP won with a razor-thin margin, helped by a sympathy vote after he was injured in a mysterious election-eve shooting.<p>

Saturday's election will be watched carefully in Beijing, where Ma in all likelihood is the preferred candidate.<p>

While the Taiwanese population may be gradually losing interest in China, the reverse is not true, especially not at the highest levels.<p>

China is gearing up for a once-in-a-decade leadership transition and would prefer predictability in its immediate neighbourhood, said Liu Bi-rung, a political science professor at the Soochow University in Taipei.<p>

"It will take Beijing some time, at least a year, to observe what measures Tsai will adopt in dealing with the mainland (if she wins). Under such circumstances, ties between Taipei and Beijing will become stagnant," he said.<p>

"China obviously wouldn't like to see the Taiwan issue become a factor of uncertainty at a time when it is carrying out its own leadership transition."<p>
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<pubDate>Tue, 21 FEB 2012 08:55:04 AEST</pubDate>
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