At the Munich Security Conference, which wound up pm Sunday, AFP spoke to Rachel Ellehuus, director general of British defence think-tank the Royal United Services Institute, about her key takeaways.

- Trump sends calmer 'grown-ups' -

A year after US Vice President JD Vance stunned the MSC by attacking Europeans on democracy and civil rights, Donald Trump sent more moderate members -- Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby.

"There was a deliberate attempt this year to send so-called grown-ups," Ellehuus said.

Both "signalled that they see Europe as a partner, that the US believes that NATO is good for the US and they want to make this partnership work", she said.

She said Colby delivered a "very direct" message: "The United States has many responsibilities, the Europeans are quite wealthy, and it is time for Europe to take the lead in conventional defence operations within NATO."

Nevertheless, trust has been lost and Nordic leaders worry about Trump's designs on Denmark's autonomous territory of Greenland and fear "there could be other surprises".

She also expressed worry about Colby's use of the term "flexible realism" and whether this means Washington will differentiate between "good NATO members" who have stepped up defence spending, like Germany and Norway, and those who have done less.

"I do worry that they're going to distinguish between allies and decide that some are more worth defending than others. And of course that undermines the entire principle of NATO."

"Another cause for concern," she said, was that Rubio "talked a lot about Christian values and the civilisational ties". She said this points to the "alignment among the far right" on both sides of the Atlantic.

- European NATO allies vow to arm up -

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in his opening speech, delivered "a very strong push for a more European NATO".

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer meanwhile expressed "a desire for a closer relationship with continental Europe and the European Union", she said, adding this "was quite bold because politically that's a bit risky for him in the in the UK".

And French President Emmanuel Macron talked about a European defence beyond the EU which would be "much more inclusive of countries like Norway, Turkey and the United Kingdom".

"I thought all of those were good steps for the big European countries, becoming more aligned in terms of how they would step up in creating a more robust European defence."

Ellehuus nonetheless stressed that Europe faces many obstacles, from fiscal problems in France and the UK to delays and hurdles in European defence cooperation.

- Slim hope for Ukraine peace -

Most European leaders at the MSC do not believe a ceasefire will come any time soon in the Ukraine war started by Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion.

"The overarching sense was that Russia is not serious about ending the war, and the current negotiations are just an attempt by Russia to buy time to keep fighting," Ellehuus said about US-led talks.

At the MSC, "there were a lot of people in there who tried to undermine this narrative that the Russians are winning," she said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "called on the world to exert maximum pressure on Russia, for example more targeted sanctions to decrease the price of oil".

She pointed to large Russian losses for minimal territorial gains and said: "When you look at the economic indicators, some of the pressures on their society, they're not exactly winning."

- China seeks seat 'being vacated by US' -

As Trump vows to place "America first", China is "more than happy to move into the seat that is being vacated by the United States," she said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke of strengthening ties with Germany and rebooting relations with Canada. Despite being a close ally of Moscow, he said Beijing was willing to send "new humanitarian aid" to war-torn Ukraine.

Ellehuus said China "did a very nice job of presenting themselves as the guardians of multilateralism, as the protector of small and medium sized countries, as the guardians of the rules-based order".

She added that "nobody believes that, but they presented a very kind and gentle face, that could be tempting to some countries if they're upset with the United States".

Ellehuus said Europeans "are aware of the risk, but they are tempted by the economic benefits that could come from a closer economic and trade relationship with China, and they probably think that they can manage the downside".