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China sets low growth target as consumption lags
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Beijing, March 5 (AFP) Mar 05, 2026
China on Thursday announced the country's lowest annual growth target in decades as the government outlined its plans to tackle sluggish consumption and a flagging property market in 2026.

The figure was released at the annual Two Sessions political gathering, before Premier Li Qiang opened the National People's Congress (NPC), China's parliament, on Thursday morning.

For this year, China expects growth of 4.5-5.0 percent, according to a government report, "with efforts in actual work to strive for even better results".

Last year's target was around five percent.

This year's is the lowest since at least 2005, when China began systematically announcing a growth goal at the Two Sessions.

The only exception was in 2020, when none was set as the economy reeled from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has said repeatedly that the country's economic growth model must shift away from traditional drivers such as exports and manufacturing, and towards consumption.

Other "main projected targets for development" in 2026 include an increase in the consumer price index of around two percent, and "growth in residents' income in step with economic growth", according to the report.

"The policymakers have been saying on many occasions that the quality of growth is more important than the speed of growth," Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, wrote in a note Thursday.

"The decision to cut the growth target for this year is a big step that signifies this shift of policy priority."


- 'High-quality growth' -


China's economic expansion has been slowing for years as the economy matures.

The government has said its focus is now on "high-quality" growth through upgrading China's industry, investing in new technologies, and pursuing green development.

Strong exports drove the economy to expand five percent in 2025, with the trade surplus hitting a record $1.2 trillion, despite a months-long trade war with the United States.

The CCP wants to rebalance the economy by boosting domestic demand, but it faces a flagging property market, deflation and elevated youth unemployment, which have left consumers tightening their purse strings.

"We see strong headwinds in (the first half of) 2026 and believe even a lowered target of 4.5-5.0 percent could prove quite challenging to achieve," Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note.

Thursday saw the government outline stimulus measures for this year and set a budget deficit of around four percent of gross domestic product (GDP), similar to last year.

The report said 1.3 trillion yuan ($188.5 billion) of ultra-long special treasury bonds would be issued for "major national strategies", along with 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special-purpose bonds.

Beijing is also expected to publish its 15th Five-Year Plan during the Two Sessions, which began Wednesday with the opening of political advisory body the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

The plan, which will map out national development goals for 2026-2030, will have a strong focus on technological development across fields including artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and energy and resource security.

Beijing is investing heavily in high-tech industries such as semiconductors and AI to reduce its reliance on the United States.

sam/dhw/reb/dan

NOMURA HOLDINGS


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