The new projection, published in the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook report, is slightly lower than its January forecast of 4.5 percent and well off last year's official five percent expansion.

The Washington-based organisation said "lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict" on the world's second-largest economy.

Exports, the engine of China's growth, remained robust, it said.

But the country's overall economic outlook remains bleak, with growth expected to slow to 4.0 percent in 2027 owing to "structural headwinds", the Fund said.

It cited "a grinding slowdown in the housing sector, a declining labour force, decreasing returns on investment, and slower productivity growth".

The IMF also cut its 2026 growth forecast for emerging and developing Asia to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent -- a significant slowdown from the region's 5.5 percent expansion recorded last year.

"In several South and Southeast Asian economies, disruptions in the Middle East are expected to reduce tourism and remittance inflows, thereby weakening domestic demand," the Fund said.

Among those being hit was the Philippines, with the IMF cutting its outlook for growth by 1.5 percentage points as war shocks compound the negative effects of a weaker-than-expected 2025 result.

But India's economy is now tipped to grow 6.5 percent this year, a rise of 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast, with the Fund saying the reduction in US tariffs -- from 50 percent to 10 percent -- will soften the impact of the Middle East conflict.

Reflecting the worldwide disruption of energy supplies caused by the war in the Middle East, global economic growth for 2026 was revised downwards by 0.2 points to 3.1 percent.