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China's Evergrande: How will a 'controlled demolition' impact the economy? Beijing, Dec 8 (AFP) Dec 08, 2021 As Chinese real estate behemoth Evergrande reportedly prepares for a government-backed mega-restructure, here is an explainer on what Beijing's bid to limit a contagion could mean for the wider economy:
Evergrande, a real estate giant with a presence in over 280 Chinese cities, was the most prominent developer to pay the price for Beijing's clampdown. More than $300 billion in debt, it teetered for months on the edge of default, returning each time from the brink thanks to a last-minute repayment. But according to Bloomberg it has now missed a 30-day grace period on overdue coupon payments worth $82.5 million, while agency S&P Global Ratings has said a default now "looks inevitable".
Analysts said this moment signalled the formal start of the giant's debt restructuring -- a process that will likely take years.
"It's pretty clear that the state is seriously involved in managing the situation," Shehzad Qazi, managing director of data analytics firm China Beige Book, told AFP. It will "ultimately be a 'controlled demolition'," Qazi added. But bondholders are likely to face deep haircuts, and even if restructuring provide some answers, the broader impact of Beijing's sweeping property crackdown remains to be seen.
Hong Kong-listed Sunshine 100 defaulted after missing a deadline to make $179 million in payments this week, and Kaisa failed in a debt swap to buy crucial time for raising cash. Property firms made up 36 percent of the $10.2 billion of offshore bonds that Chinese borrowers defaulted on this year, Bloomberg said.
Regulators have said they would safeguard the rights of homebuyers, while the banking and insurance authority stressed the need to "focus on satisfying mortgage needs for first homes." With the local government sending a working group to the firm, the Evergrande crisis has drawn parallels with government intervention in other indebted companies, notably aviation conglomerate HNA Group. HNA's restructuring did not cause investor panic -- although Evergrande's higher profile means this time will likely prove a bigger challenge. But whatever happens to Evergrande, Beijing's broader clampdown has already had a major impact on the property sector and deepened worries over key firms' financial health, bringing home sales and prices down.
Evergrande's woes have rocked stock markets -- and the real estate sector makes up much of distressed dollar-denominated debt internationally. But an Evergrande default has long been expected, and fears over a "Lehman moment" -- a reference to the Wall Street titan whose collapse prompted panic worldwide during the 2008 global financial crisis -- have already been dismissed. bys/rox/ser |
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